2024 Q1

A Record Quarter

Since 2022 it's become a regular occurrence to talk about a record quarter.  You see it in many company results.  And here it is again in our own industry data.  

In the diesel generator sets industry since 2022, with a few exceptions, most quarters have set records and Q1 of 2024 is another, surpassing the previous high in Q4 of 2023 and 18% above Q1 of 2023. 

As always there are different stories within the numbers and below we look more closely at them.  

Growth by Power Bands

Softer below 750 kVA

In Q1 we've seen a slight softening of the market below 750 kVA, with a 2% decline from 7.5 - 250 kVA compared with Q1 of 2023 and a 6% decline from 251 - 750 kVA.  The biggest declines have been in the 7.5 - 30 kVA band (-8%) and 376 - 750 kVA band (-9%).  

Barring some exceptional events in 2024, we believe this pattern is likely to continue through the year as 2024 is compared with a very strong 2023.  

But that's not to downplay this part of the market:  although softening, the market below 750 kVA is still around 20% higher than it was in 2019 - 21. 

Strong Growth above 1,500 kVA

On the other hand, above 1,500 kVA, the industry has continued on a very strong upward trajectory. 

Compared with 2023 Q1, we have seen:

• 43% growth from 1,501 - 3,000 kVA

• 68% growth above 3,000 kVA

In these power bands, demand is so strong that it feels as if the only growth constraint is the industry's production capacity.

Regional Growth

In this section, we’ll focus on the two largest regional markets, one of which had the highest growth in Q1, and the other the largest decline.  

Globally the strongest underlying growth is in North America where we have seen an increase of 44% compared with Q1 of 2023.  

Demand from the data center and critical power sectors has been the strongest driver, while across the board, relatively favorable economic conditions through 2023 and early 2024 have played a part.  

Through 2024, we see some softening in demand at lower ratings, below 1,000 kVA.  But there seems no end to the surge in units above 2,000 kVA and particularly between 3,000 - 4000 kVA.  

In Europe, where the market is 20% down on Q1 of 2023, we're seeing a mixed picture.  

In 2022 and into early 2023, in some countries there were concerns over the ability of electric utilities to meet demand with reduced gas supplies.   Diesel generator sets were in great demand.  But now those concerns have passed.  

2022 and early 2023 also saw very significant exports of diesel generator sets to Ukraine.  In 2023, Ukraine was the world's 9th largest market; in 2024 Q1 Ukraine is the 36th largest.    

The pain of this decline has been felt most by the mid-sized independent producers in Europe.  Generally, these make most of their sales in Europe at ratings below 1,500 kVA:  at these ratings, in Q1 of 2024, the market is more than 40% below levels in Q1 of 2023.  

On the other hand, the market at higher power ratings is booming, like North America.  Compared with Q1 of 2023, we have seen a 46% increase in the market from 1501 - 3000 kVA and a 34% increase above 3,000 kVA.